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ADVANCED OBSERVATION FORM
 Start Date: 01.23.18
 Drainage/Route:  South Fork of Soldier Creek, Peak 2 in the Cat Skiing area Observed Terrain:  E facing bowl at 8,000'. Cat Skiing call it Nose Bowl Zone/Region:  Soldier Mountains
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS
 HN24: HST: Sky: FEW Precip: S-1 Temps: 15
 Ridgeline Wind: Light and Steady from the NW
 Blowing Snow: None Snow Available for Transport: Small amounts
 Comments: We triggered a large slide in Nose Bowl inside the Cat Skiing area. I've been concerned about a weak layer above the December drought layer that seems to be prevalent on E to N facing slopes. Our S facing slopes are bomber!
AVALANCHE OBSERVATIONS
 No. Location Date Size Type Trigger Aspect Elevation Comments
 2 Soldier Mtn, Cat Skiing Today 3.5 WS AE E 8400
SNOWPACK OBSERVATIONS
 HS:  
 Upper Pack: 4" new local snow that was available for transport into this bowl. Numerous hasty pits showed CT12-CT14 consistent failure, but only 10-20 cm deep 
 Middle Pack: consistent CT snow, usually finger hard or stronger. 
 Lower Pack: There were 50mph NW gusts and 4' new snow available for transport into Nose Bowl. We have been concerned about the 5 cm of weak snow just above the December drought layer. Most of our frequent fliers slid soon after the recent snow and wind events, but Nose Bowl is one of those stubborn areas that isn't frequent. I threw bombs in this bowl hoping it would slide to flush out the depth hoar and dangerous snow lingering above some of the ski runs. We don't ski this bowl often because it has high consequences when it slides.  
AVALANCHE PROBLEM ASSESSMENT
Avalanche Characteristics
Character/Avalanche Problem:
Wind Slab

Layer/Depth:
50cm

Likelihood of Triggering
Sensitivity:
Stubborn

Spatial Distribution:
Specific
Where did you find this problem?
  Primary Concern Comments: This Weal layer above the December drought layer seem to be prevalent on E and NE facing slopes in our area
 
Avalanche Characteristics
Character/Avalanche Problem:
Deep Persistent Slab

Layer/Depth:
Ground to 100cm

Likelihood of Triggering
Sensitivity:
Stubborn

Spatial Distribution:
Specific
Where did you find this problem?
  Problem 2 Comments: This layer could be more wide spread. More pits and observations will be sent soon.
STABILITY TESTS
 Stability Test Results: Numerous hasty pits showed very stable snow on S and SE facing slopes. There is some collapsing in the top 4" of new snow, but it is starting to settle. E Facing slopes have a layer of concern in mid elevations. N facing slopes are just starting to support isolated columns and have not been evaluated much.
SNOW STABILITY
 Snow Stability Rating for your observed area: Fair Confidence: HIGH Trend: Steady
 Comments (aspects and elevations of instability, etc): E facing bowls that are wind loaded should be avoided, S facing slopes that have enough snow to ski are pretty bomber. N facing slopes are still collapsing but feel like they are strengthening.
BOTTOM LINE
 Comments: Ski S and W facing slopes that are covered. Avoid E facing lee slopes that are wind loaded. Jury is out on N faces.