Decreasing likelihood of triggering doesn't reflect increasing weak layer strength. This type of snowpack will not hold up well to significant loading, particularly prolonged period of precip currently forecast for the next few weeks.
Intense afternoon squall produced 3-4cm fresh snow in White Clouds today, appeared to be nearly double that in Stanley. Clearing in White Clouds beginning around 1430, quite a bit of direct solar input between 1430 and sunset. Low clouds hung over the Sawtooths until sunset - appeared to be snowing there for much of the afternoon. Strong winds accompanied precip, wind direction was shifting and difficult to determine. Calm to light west winds in White Clouds after precip ended.
HS 50-60cm at 8,500' on SW-NW aspects. Thin (10cm) band of snow preserved from 11/26 storms, locally capped with up to 1cm SH (12/7). SH appeared to be breaking down, but 2-4mm DH chains underneath didn't inspire confidence and produced unstable snowpack test results in CPSTs (low teens to upper 20s/100 END). ECT produced ECTX results - suspect this was due to lack of overlying slab. Frequent collapsing where this combo was preserved indicated that this set up deserves continued suspicion.
Problem | Location | Distribution | Sensitivity | Size | Comments |
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Layer Depth/Date: 12/7 Comments: 2-4mm DH capped with SH. Somewhere between stubborn and reactive, depending on overlying slab properties. |
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Did not enter avalanche terrain today.